RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — A cold week in central North Carolina will set the stage for a better chance of snow on Friday and Saturday. There’s a lot to work out between now and then, but rain, snow, or a wintry mix are all possible.
Forecasting wintry precipitation is complicated and while some kind of precipitation is going to fall this Friday and Saturday, small changes in the setup could mean big changes in what we could experience.
LOW TRACK MATTERS
The farther south the low-pressure tracks, the better chance of snow in the Triangle.
As of Tuesday morning, the GFS forecast model for early Friday morning has a low southeast of Houston, Texas. Through the day Friday, it will move along the Gulf Coast and then take a northeast turn Friday night.
With that solution, a rain-snow mix arrives in central North Carolina Friday night, with that mix or even freezing rain continuing early Saturday morning. That would be followed by a cold rain the rest of Saturday as the low pulls away to the northeast.
If we compare that to the European weather model during the exact time, by Friday morning the low is basically in the same spot southeast of Houston, but stays more to the south during the day.
This forecast would then suggest that Friday night would be drier for us, but by Saturday morning the low pressure is off our coast which could bring a rain-snow mix south of the Triangle, and snow for the rest of us.
This southern track has a better chance of bringing us snow than it does a rain-snow mix or freezing rain, but the northern track with the GFS weather model is what would give us a mix of rain and snow, and possibly some freezing rain. (It’s also important to add that if the low goes even farther north, the Triangle will experience only rain and no wintry weather.)
Yes, there the scenarios are complicated, so here’s what to keep in mind:
The track of the low makes a big difference, but so does the timing. We have a small window overnight Friday into Saturday where temperatures will be cold enough to support significant snow development, so if the low slows down or speeds up that will have an impact.
While wintry weather is looking likely, what kind of wintry precipitation will be the dominant type is still to be determined, so any impacts from Friday night into Saturday could change.
