RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — We began issuing updates on a tropical wave Saturday, and we want to bring you the latest on this slowly developing system.
As of Monday, the National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that could threaten the southeast U.S. in the next 8 to 10 days.
The Monday update shows a 50% chance that this system will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next seven days as it turns northwest toward the U.S.
Meteorologists with the NHC say that “environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek to late week.”
The primary focus for our area is whether or not this system will impact North Carolina. At this point, it’s still too early for forecast models to provide a very reliable track. Areas up and down the east coast will want to watch development closely.
Saturday’s track possibilities were very wide and lacked a clear consensus. Some outcomes even showed the system could track as far west as the Gulf of Mexico.
Sunday’s forecast model runs shifted to the east, with more simulations suggesting the system could move closer to the North and South Carolina coasts.
These models run up to 50 different weather simulations to show various possible paths for a tropical storm or hurricane, helping forecasters understand the range of outcomes and prepare accordingly.
Meteorologist Lance Blocker noted that “this will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, but once the system develops, there will be more of a consensus on the track. As of now, any forecast remains low confidence.”
Here’s why: Forecast models primarily use data from satellites that are over 20,000 miles above the Earth.
Since the system has not yet developed, confidence in the predicted tracks is very low because they don’t always define the starting point for the system’s track.
However, current indications suggest that the system will likely develop by the middle of the week. Once this happens, the satellites will be able to pinpoint its location, and the forecast models can then provide a more precise track of the tropical system.
In the meantime, don’t be alarmed if you see some ominous forecast models that will spread rapidly across social media. This happens every year. It is always best to wait for official updates regarding the system since forecast track confidence remains very low at this point.
Of course, we will continue to keep you updated on this system and what impacts it could bring to our region.
