(NewsNation) — As deadly wildfires devastate communities around the Los Angeles area, Polymarket, an American crypto-based prediction market platform, is allowing people to bet on the disaster.
Users could place wagers on 20 predictions related to the fires as of Thursday. The site also had a “wildfire” trending module.
Polymarket gamblers have bet on everything from the amount of acreage the Palisades wildfire will burn to whether arsonists will be arrested in connection with the fires. Those who invest in correct outcomes profit off of their bets.
One question with a betting pool over $60,000 asks: “Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?” Bettors gave that a 22% chance of happening as of Thursday afternoon.
Some of the L.A. wildfire wagers that were available on Polymarket as of Thursday:
- “Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?”
- “When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained?”
- “Will the Sunset wildfire reach Hollywood Blvd by Friday?”
If betting on a fatal disaster sounds unethical, you’re not alone. Polymarket has faced criticism on social media for allowing people to profit from the unfolding tragedy.
“Betting on the spread of a fire is immoral,” one user wrote in response to a Polymarket post on X.
Another user chimed in: “Betting on this is simple depravity.”
Polymarket includes a disclaimer on all bets related to the fires. It reads:
Note on Palisades Wildfire Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events impacting society. The devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event, for which Polymarket can yield invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted in ways traditional media cannot.
Note: There are no fees on this market.
Polymarket
On its website, Polymarket says users can suggest ideas for new markets, but the platform ultimately decides what people can bet on.
Polymarket is perhaps best known for its political prediction markets, making headlines back in November when bettors wagered billions on the 2024 election.
When asked about the wildfire prediction markets, a Polymarket spokesperson told Business Insider: “Polymarket charges no fees — and generates no revenue — from these markets and provides them as a service to those looking for unbiased and up-to-date information during fast-moving events.”
Officials say about 180,000 people are under evacuation orders due to the fires and thousands have been displaced. At least five people have died so far.
