(WGHP) – NOAA has released its outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, and the organization is predicting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Their forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms in the 2025 hurricane season, with 6 to 10 forecast to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
The outlook for this season predicts a 60% chance for an above-normal season with a 30% chance for a near-normal season and only a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Their reason for an above-normal hurricane season has to do with ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and higher activity from the West African Monsoon, which is a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.
All of the above reasons are elements that favor tropical storm development.
Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures help provide more energy to fuel storm development and weak wind shear allows storms to develop without disruption.
NOAA is also working on improving forecast communications for this season. The National Hurricane Center will now be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products (i.e., Tropical Storm Watch, Tropical Storm Warning) up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, which will provide communities more time to prepare.
Keep in mind that NOAA’s outlook is not a landfall forecast.
An updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be released in early August, just before the peak of hurricane season.
