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Lumina Foundation announced a new national attainment goal this week to increase the number of adults in the United States with college degrees or credentials of value to 75% by 2040.
Almost two decades ago, Lumina Foundation set a goal for 60% of working-age adults in the country to have a degree, certificate, or industry-recognized certificate by 2025. When the goal was set in 2008, only 38% of adults held one. From 2008 to 2025, the number of 25-to-64 year-olds who hold a postsecondary credential grew from 38% to 55%.
The new goal comes at a time when higher education faces many new challenges.
In a press release, president and CEO Jamie Merisotis said rising costs, doubts about job opportunities, and the influence of artificial intelligence have caused people to question whether a college degree is worth it.
“We must rethink how education creates opportunities and drives success for individuals and communities,” Merisotis said.
By 2031, 72% of U.S. jobs will require some higher education or training, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW).
Credential attainment is not only beneficial to the economy, but it also helps reduce inequality. Research from the CEW shows that attainment increases from 2010 to 2020 have contributed $14.2 trillion in lifetime earnings for U.S. workers.
Additionally, higher education attainment is also linked to “longer life expectancy, lower rates of disease, lower levels of incarceration, higher resistance to authoritarianism, and higher levels of civic participation,” according to the CEW.
The new goal is focused on ensuring that degrees and credentials benefit students and communities.
Lumina is prioritizing four key areas: ensuring credentials have value, expanding access to education, helping students graduate, and redesigning education for the future. According to Lumina, redesigning education for the future requires rethinking how colleges, universities, and state systems operate, including making college more affordable, improving financial aid, and ensuring institutions are providing value to students and communities.
North Carolina’s attainment goal
Last month, myFutureNC, the statewide nonprofit organization focused on educational attainment, convened education, government, business, and nonprofit leaders to discuss North Carolina’s progress toward our statewide attainment goal of 2 million North Carolinians ages 25-44 with an industry-valued credential or postsecondary degree by 2030.
When North Carolina’s attainment goal was unveiled in 2019, it was one of the most ambitious goals in the country.
Since then, nearly 215,000 additional North Carolinians aged 25-44 have earned a postsecondary degree or credential. That means 1.66 million adults in the state hold a degree or high-quality credential.
North Carolina leaders say the work is far over, calling it an all-hands-on-deck situation.
“While the 2030 goal may be state-led, we know that work must happen at the grassroots level,” Cecilia Holden, president and CEO of myFutureNC, said. “It must be locally owned and locally driven.
When these efforts began in 2019, the state was projected to fall short of its goal by 400,000. The projected shortfall is now 55,000.
Despite North Carolina’s strong economy, which consistently ranks in the top three states for business, most jobs will require a degree or credential beyond high school. Recent data show that only 31% of public school ninth graders in North Carolina graduate on time and earn a college degree or certificate within six years of high school graduation, according to myFutureNC.
Transfer enrollment grew in 2024
Nationally, transfer enrollment grew for the third year in a row.
According to a new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, the number of undergraduates transferring to a new institution increased by 4.4% in fall 2024, roughly 1.2 million students.
Transfer students made up 13.1% of non-freshman undergraduates in fall 2024.
While transfer enrollment remains below pre-pandemic levels, it is ahead of fall 2020 levels by 7.9%. The report notes that COVID-19 significantly impacted enrollment at community colleges, which caused a ripple effect across all higher education sectors.
Across all institutional sectors, transfer enrollment into community colleges has grown the most since 2020, increasing 13.5% or 46,500 students. According to the report, transfer students made up a bigger share of non-freshman community college enrollees in fall 2024 than they did five years ago.
The number of students transferring from a four-year institution to a two-year college increased 6.3% from 2023 to 2024.
But the majority of transfer students are those transferring from a two-year to a four-year institution. Those students made up 41.7% of transfer enrollment in 2024. This number represents a 3.5% decrease from fall 2020 to fall 2024.
Transfer enrollment among Black and Hispanic students increased in fall 2024 compared to fall 2023 (+8.3% and +4.4%, respectively). Black and Hispanic students transferring from a four-year institution to a two-year institution increased last fall (9.8% and 6.0%, respectively). White students were the only race/ethnicity group to see a decline in transfer enrollment in 2024, down 1.3%.
