(WGHP) – Drought conditions continue to expand in the mountains, foothills and western Piedmont of North Carolina with the latest update to the drought monitor.
The March 27 update shows that abnormally dry conditions have expanded across the southeast, and moderate to severe drought conditions have increased in North Carolina.
As of the recent drought update, nearly 95% of North Carolina is experiencing some level of drought, from abnormally dry conditions to severe drought.
Over 60% of the state is under level 1 drought or higher, compared to just last week when less than 50% of the state was under a level 1 drought or higher.
While no extreme or exceptional drought conditions have shown up yet, about 2% of eastern North Carolina remains under severe drought conditions.
Over the past week, the majority of the southeastern United States has faced breezy and dry conditions, leading to a rash of wildfire activity, including the Black Cove and Deep Woods fires near Saluda.
It has not just been the past week that’s been dry though. While the dry and breezy conditions through the majority of March have certainly not helped with worsening drought and fire weather concerns, the overall trend over the past six months has been pretty dry.
From October through March, the Triad normally observes around 18.13 inches of rainfall, but, since October, PTI airport has only observed about 12.69 inches.
That puts the Piedmont Triad in a nearly 5.5-inch rainfall deficit in the last six months.
The only month in which we observed above normal rainfall was February with 4.08 inches.
With the decrease in rainfall across the state post-Helene, the concern switched from flooding in western North Carolina to wildfire as dry and breezy conditions persisted. March and April mark the spring wildfire season for the state, and a rainfall deficit is certainly not helping with the growing risk of wildfires.
To aid in reducing the wildfire risk, North Carolina remains under a burn ban until further notice with no open burning allowed and all burn permits cancelled until the risk decreases.
How much rain do we need to help with the growing drought and wildfire concerns?
In order to eliminate drought conditions completely in just a one month, the Piedmont Triad would need to receive 6 to 9 inches of rainfall in one month, nearly double or triple the normal monthly rainfall.
Obviously, we don’t want to go from one extreme to the next as that could put us at risk for flooding, but a gradual or persistent rainfall throughout the month would be incredibly beneficial to local farmers and the wildfire concern.
The longer it takes for us to get decent and persistent rainfall, the more rain is needed to end the drought. If we wanted to see drought eliminated in the next two months, the Piedmont Triad would need 9 to 12 inches of rainfall.
If you think that’s a lot, western North Carolina would need nearly 15 inches of rainfall to completely eliminate drought conditions.
April’s monthly rainfall average is 3.78 inches, and May’s monthly rainfall average is 3.49 inches. If we were to see a significant improvement in drought conditions in the next two months, we’d need to see near- or above-normal rainfall.
Near-normal rainfall in the next two months would give us over 7 inches of rainfall. While this would not completely eliminate drought conditions in the Triad, it would give us some much-needed improvement.
To completely eliminate drought during April and May, the Triad would need to receive 2 or more inches of rainfall in addition to the two-month normal.
This year is certainly putting a new perspective on the saying “April showers bring May flowers”.
Is any relief in sight?
At this point, even a few rainy days would be helpful. If we look ahead to the last weekend in March, some rain is in the forecast on Sunday and carries into the start of the week.
But rainfall totals don’t look nearly as impressive as is hoped for or needed. The mountains and foothills are forecast to see 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, and only 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain is expected in the rest of the Tar Heel state from Sunday into Monday.
If we look beyond the next week and into the first full week of April, the Climate Prediction Center shows a chance of up to 50% to see above-normal rainfall in the Piedmont Triad between April 3 and April 9.
In the meantime, get your rain dance on and continue abiding by statewide and local burn bans.
