BRUNSWICK COUNTY — Brunswick County is the 19th fastest-growing county in the country and has the highest-growing population statewide.
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Currently, around 13,000 students crowd 20 schools in the county, with anticipated growth to be around 19,000 by 2034.
To prepare for increased needs in the next decade, the county is transferring two parcels, totaling 257 acres, to the school district. The goal is to build a new educational complex, comprising an elementary, middle and high school, though no timeline or preliminary designs have been set.
Brunswick County commissioners voted unanimously on Aug. 5 to allow the transfer of the land with one condition proposed by Commissioner Frank Williams: The parcels must be dedicated exclusively to school use and cannot be sold.
“Not that they would do that,” he said of the school district. “But I don’t know who is going to be on that board in four years.”
According to Gordon Burnette, spokesperson for BCS, the two parcels on Middle River Road are a desirable location due to its centrality in the county and to meet the pressing need in the area. The parcels are located in Supply, adjacent to the county’s landfill, which, according to a Brunswick Beacon article is set to shutter.
At the commissioners’ meeting in August, County Manager Steve Stone mentioned the county initially planned to expand the landfill onto the two parcels, acquired in 2010. However, the project was abandoned due to costs.
The last new school to open in the district in 2020 was Town Creek Middle School. The $24.5-million school was covered by the 2016 bond referendum, which also brought in additional classrooms to Lincoln and Town Creek elementary schools, and a K-2 building to Waccamaw School.
Burnette noted while the new complex is still in the preliminary planning phase and funding has not yet been secured, the board plans to work with the board of commissioners and local and state representatives to explore possible funding sources.
“This effort includes pursuing state grants, evaluating the possibility of a local bond referendum dedicated to school construction, and exploring other revenue sources,” he said.
Capacity data
A demographer gathered data and presented to the board of commissioners in April, indicating every school in the district is expected to reach or surpass capacity in the next 10 years.
“In a fast-growing district like this, we don’t want to run out of space,” Dr. Nathan Dollar, director of the demography unit at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Carolina Population Center, told the board.
His demographic and enrollment forecast underscored the need for additional elementary and high schools, particularly. Elementary schools are operating at 92.8% capacity and high schools are at 89.2% capacity.
The 2024-2025 school year, which began Monday, will push Belville Elementary to exceed its capacity by 3.3%, Town Creek Elementary by 4%, and Virginia Williamson Elementary by 1.2%. Within the next four years, all elementary schools are projected to surpass capacity.
Among the three high schools in the district, West Brunswick High is currently the only one in good standing with capacity, though it is expected to reach 85.2% by the 2027-2028 school year. By contrast, North Brunswick and South Brunswick high schools are projected to exceed 95% capacity the same year.
Dollar presented a color-coded chart to illustrate to the board where schools land; any below 85% capacity were marked green, above 85% were yellow, and above 95% were red.
North Brunswick was already at 100% capacity last year; however, Superintendent Dale Cole said at the board’s April committee meeting that a 16-classroom addition is underway to alleviate the overcrowding and move the school out of the red zone.
“Just 16 classrooms is going to help us out for three years,” Cole said to the board. “It will give us a bubble of capacity, but then we are going to grow past it.”
North Brunswick had a ribbon cutting last week to open the new addition ahead of the 2024-2025 school year.
Dollar highlighted most middle schools in the district are in relatively good shape. However, Leland Middle School is approaching full capacity, projected to exceed 100% by the 2029-2030 school year.
Figures were not a “random and wild guess,” according to Dollar. His team took into consideration historical enrollment patterns, school capacity, and attendance zones, known residential developments, occupancy rates in developments, economic variables, and other factors to determine data.
One significant development the team looked at included the Williamson Tract, 3,196 acres near Swain’s Cut Bridge in Oak Island. This project, in progress since 2009, is expected to introduce 7,200 housing units along with a commercial area. Additionally, 8 acres of the tract will be allocated for public use by the town.
“So what do we need to do? And when do we need to start? I mean, is that part of what you do?” school board member Steve Gainey asked Dollar in April.
Dollar noted his team only projects growth and local officials, along with the district, can decide how to use the information provided. He did suggest reaching out to developers to understand the timelines in which more homes will be built in the region, to appropriately plan for school growth.
Burnette said the schools will be built in the next 10 to 15 years.
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