Models show a 70-80% chance of temperatures dropping at least 10 degrees below average, though Panovich says long-range forecasts are only about 40% accurate.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As cold temperatures are set to hit the eastern United States in early January, WCNC Charlotte chief meteorologist Brad Panovich is reminding people to be wary of long-range forecasts.
A weather phenomenon known as a “cross-polar flow” will direct frigid Arctic air into the eastern half of the country starting around Jan. 8.
“It’s going to get cold,” Panovich said. “We don’t know the extent of the cold. We don’t know about winter precipitation for sure, but it’s ridiculous to look at 10+ day specific forecasts.”
The timing of the cold snap coincides with what is historically the coldest period of winter for the Charlotte region, from Jan. 6-22. Panovich notes this could amplify the impact of below-average temperatures.
“For it to be below average during the coldest part of the winter tells you it’s going to be pretty cold out there across the region,” he said.
Weather models show a 70-80% chance of temperatures dropping at least 10 degrees below average, though Panovich cautions that long-range forecasts are only about 40% accurate.
While the potential for winter precipitation exists, Panovich explains that any snow or ice typically doesn’t arrive with the initial cold front.
“The first cold snap doesn’t bring the snow,” he said. “It’s the follow-on system that throws moisture into the cold air, which was established by the first storm.”
The cold pattern is expected to persist through mid-January, marking what could be the longest stretch of below-average temperatures the region has experienced in several years.
Meteorologists will continue monitoring the system’s development, with more accurate predictions of severity and precipitation expected within three to five days of the event.
