(WGHP) – If you’ve lived in North Carolina long enough, the big temperature swings are nothing new. But how common is it to see spring-like weather in February, and why are we seeing such a temperature rollercoaster this week?
How common is “false spring” in the Triad?
The Piedmont Triad set a new record high temperature for Feb. 4 with a high temperature of 75° on Tuesday. The previous record temperature was 73° set in 1962.
Afternoon temperatures like these are more common in late April or early May, not February. Normal February high temperatures range from 51° at the start of the month to 57° by the last day. Temperatures in the 60s are considered normal for mid-to late March.
It’s not uncommon, however, to have several days in February with warmer temperatures, giving us a “fool’s spring” or “false spring.” These terms are often used to describe the rollercoaster temperatures we see in late winter or early spring.
In the last 10 years, it’s become more common to see “false spring” in the Triad with an average of 10.5 days in February reaching the 60s or warmer. Since 1928, the Triad has averaged 7.5 days with temperatures of 60° or warmer each February. In 2024, we observed eight days in February with high temperatures at or above 60°., and both February 2022 and February 2023 saw more than 10 days with highs in the 60s or warmer.
The Triad has seen February temperatures reach 75° or warmer 39 times since 1929, and nearly half of those days have occurred in the last 30 years. Before Tuesday’s high of 75°, the last time we’d been warmer in February was on Feb. 28, 2023, with a high of 77°.
While Tuesday’s high temperature in the mid-70s was a record high temperature, it wasn’t the only abnormally warm day we’ve seen this month and it likely won’t be the last.
What’s causing the big swing in temperatures this week?
Now that we’ve talked about how common it is to see a false spring in North Carolina, let’s dive into why we’re seeing such rollercoaster temperatures to kick off February.
The strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, also known as the jet stream, is part of what helps control our overall temperatures. In the summer, the jet stream is located further north, trapping the coldest air close to the Arctic Circle and allowing the United States to see warm, summer temperatures. But, in the winter, the jet stream dips further south, bringing the colder air across the lower 48.
We call spring and fall “transition” months because we transition from cold weather to warmer weather or vice versa. But, they’re also the transition months because the jet stream will begin moving further north in the spring or further south in the fall.
Because February is nearing the start of the “transition” season, temperatures are more likely to fluctuate as the jet stream slowly but surely makes its trek back north for the summer. This northward trek can also be partly to blame for our rollercoaster month of temperatures and why we see a few different versions of “false spring” around this time of year.
While the jet stream impacts the overall pattern of our temperatures specifically the upper levels of the atmosphere during the transition months, there’s also weather happening closer to the surface in the form of high pressure and cold fronts.
Cold fronts are much more common in the transition months as they’re typically associated with the movement and position of the jet stream in the upper levels. With that being said, we’ve certainly seen lots of activity recently involving cold fronts. Two back-to-back cold fronts for the first weekend of February left us with a nearly 20-degree temperature drop to start the month.
By Monday and Tuesday, a high-pressure system located off the southeast coast brought warm, tropical winds from the Atlantic into the Triad bringing a steep temperature increase of 25 degrees from Sunday to Tuesday.
The taste of spring was brief because the high-pressure system moved away and a backdoor cold front moved in Tuesday night, dropping temperatures again by 25-30 degrees. A backdoor cold front is a cold front that moves in from the northeast, the opposite direction of most cold fronts, and is more likely to happen in the springtime.
The backdoor front was followed by an area of Canadian high pressure which continued to bring cold air in from the northeast direction on Wednesday.
Now that temperatures are near-normal for February with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s on Wednesday, it’s going to stay that way, right? Not quite.
As we head through the remainder of the week, our temperatures will continue to fluctuate between the 40s, 50s and 60s due to the continued movement of cold fronts and high-pressure systems.
While the cold weather is not done yet, our days of “false spring” are certainly not done either as we transition to the warmer months.
